Tensions between the United States and China--stemming in large part from criticisms of how China dealt with the COVID-19--have remained high over the last few months. This discourse, along with the recent re-emergence of nationalism and protectionism, has already shown a major impact on global trade.
According to World Health Organization estimates, international merchandise trade is expected to plummet between 13 and 32 percent this year, although this is entirely dependent on how long it takes for the international community to reach pre-crisis trade levels. World Bank data shows that the trade decline following the 2009 global financial crisis, world trade “never returned to its previous growth trajectory.” Experts predict that the devastating economic conditions triggered by COVID-19 will have similar long-term effects.
According to World Trade Organization Director-General Roberto Azevêdo, the information as presented now is cause for concern. “These numbers are ugly,” Azevêdo said during a press release; however, he added that “a rapid, vigorous rebound is possible.” This rapid rebound, as the Director-General emphasized, is entirely dependent on the continuation of free trade. If the international market is allowed to thrive with world powers working together, the economic recovery of this global pandemic will be accelerated.